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Adobe is Screwed. So is every other software company

FantasyForge said:
You are totally missing the point.
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I'm missing the point?? Dude, I've been running open models on my computers for 2 years and I keep talking about it on this forum too.

No, the point is that open source anything, be it programs or OSs or AIs, are a super niche thing either for nerds, or for companies that have a specific need for it.

The vast majority of people will use the big brand name, be it Claude, Apple, Adobe, Microsoft or Amazon. It doesn't mean anything that there exists an open source thing, when the common normie won't even look in that direction in the first place.

We're just talking over each other in this thread... I'm checking out of here unless there's something new to debate. If we're getting self-improving AI that can write model weights directly, it's all moot anyway 😄
 
TailsWin said:
No, the point is that open source anything, be it programs or OSs or AIs, are a super niche thing either for nerds, or for companies that have a specific need for it.
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You are making a point that is irrelevant to my point. And, your point isn't even necessarily true. It's like saying Linux is irrelevant, when it is the most common OS on the planet, it is everywhere on virtual machines, in the Cloud, and, indeed, hosting the Cloud. In tiny systems up to supercomputers.
Ditto with open source models, these will be installed all over the place, embedded in applications, how many mobile phone apps use little embedded models to do stuff, nowadays? And that's just one niche.
These models are not restricted to people using them to save tokens, or because they are often uncensoring, or because they work offline. And don't underestimate how much kids are running these models, as fun toys, especially once their tokens run out.
Besides, my point is, we have all this new open source AI software that lets us do things we could not do before, not even close. That's my point, and, there is no downside to having those models exist.
Your argument about big brand AI is totally irrelevant to the point I made. I'm not talking over you, you are talking past me.
 
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FantasyForge said:
Your argument about big brand AI is totally irrelevant to the point I made. I'm not talking over you, you are talking past me.
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It is relevant because I'm simply not that optimistic.

This thread is about Adobe and "alternatives". To summarize my entire point about this thing: Adobe is a monopoly not because it ever was the best or anyone liked it the most, but because it became the default, the de facto standard and the cozy go-to, because it's a recognisable brand that everyone uses.

The same thing is with anything Apple, Google, Microsoft, and that's just the tech brands.

Is Chrome the best browser? No, it literally offers no advantages over many others. Shit, most browsers use the exact same engine and thus are 100% compatible. So why people use Chrome? Because they know it. And once the normie consumer knows something, they'll keep using it forever, and the power of that thing keeps growing until it becomes the monopoly and they can do anything they want. Fill up the thing with spyware, block all adblockers, doesn't matter. The normie is caught in the net.

I also argued that if someone can jump from Adobe to this vibecoded Craft thingy, it means they could've switched to something else ages ago. Most don't, because reasons.

I'm simply not optimistic that we'll suddenly get into some software utopia just because more software becomes available. We're still the same dumb human species with attention span of a goldfish that jumps at shiny thing. There will always be commercial pressures for enshittification, for some solution to become the monopolistic de facto standard, and there will always be the vast majority of users that will use the default thing regardless of how good or shit it is.

Even if Photoshop or something gets replaced as the default, or even the entire paradigm of software gets turned on its head, doesn't mean it's all suddenly gonna be all bright and open source, because you'd need to change the entire concept of human civilisation for that to take effect.
 
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